Keeping Control in 2010

While unions and working families made impressive gains in Washington during the 2008 elections, it will probably take more than just two years to undo the attacks and neglect of the past eight years. The 2010 elections will be important, to make permanent our gains in 2008, and to complete a change toward a worker-friendly federal government and economy.

Currently, Democrats have large majorities in both the U.S. House of Representatives, 255 Democrats to 178 Republicans with two vacancies, and the U.S. Senate, 56-41 with two Independents and one seat undecided. All 435 U.S. members of Congress will be up for re-election in November 2010. At risk are the newest Democrats in former Republican seats, including Schauer and Peters of Michigan; Himes of Connecticut; McMahon, Maffei and Massa in New York; Kilpatrick in Arizona; Minnick in Idaho; Titus in Nevada; Everett and Rogers in Alabama; Kosmos and Grayson in Florida; and Kratovil in Maryland. In 2010, 35 seats in the U.S. Senate will be up for grabs, due to expiring terms or retirements. The party breakdown in the Senate is 19 Republicans and 16 Democrats seeking re-election or retiring, and at least two senators replacing Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of New York.

Historically, a sitting president’s party does less well in the midterm elections during his first term in office. While the UAW and all working families can be jubilant with the victory of Barack Obama, the UAW will have to work hard to build on our successes of the past two election cycles, if we are to keep moving forward with a progressive legislative agenda and undo the damage of the past eight years of Bush/Republican control of government. It is also critical that we get the right persons nominated to run from our respective districts and states, as candidates and officeholders from both parties have sometimes been indifferent to unions and working families.

State Capitals

Many legislative and policy issues important to working families and unions are decided at the state level. Unemployment compensation, workers compensation, bargaining rights for public workers and union shop contracting are all issues that are under the authority of state legislatures and governors. Former U.S. House Speaker Thomas “Tip” O’Neill famously observed “all politics is local,” and this is certainly true of the success or failure of working families’ agenda.

Currently, Democrats control 27 state legislatures, Republicans 14, eight are divided evenly and Nebraska has a unicameral nonpartisan legislature. Among states with a UAW presence, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and New York became more Democratic in 2008, while Oklahoma and Tennessee became more Republican.

In governors’ mansions, the 2008 elections had Democrats expanding their majority to 29 governors, up from 27, giving unions a chance at winning back collectivebargaining for state employees in Missouri, and set an agenda for livable workers compensation, unemployment insurance, and other workers’ issues in all of those 29 states. At least 30 governors will be up for election or re-election in 2010. States with a large UAW presence that have races include Michigan, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Illinois, Connecticut, California, Georgia and Kentucky.

Reapportionment and Redistricting

When looking forward to the elections of 2010, it is also important to be mindful that the state legislators and governors who win will be drawing the district lines based on that year’s census. For nearly all states, these are the political boundaries that we will have to deal with for the next decade. The power to apportion voters in favorable districts is huge, because it means winning over several election cycles and controlling the agenda in state capitals and Washington. Recent history has shown how Republican Party operators used the “power of the pen” to get several of their candidates elected in Texas, thus increasing their control in Congress, and control of the Michigan Legislature for over a decade. Above right is a quick and simple example of two different district maps, with different representation potential.

Sample District Map

Current District Map Current State District Map Three Districts. Even Distribution of Party Voters Across Three Different Communities – Urban, Suburban and Rural.	New District Map Same State, Same Communities and Voters. District lines drawn to concentrate Urban Democrats and expand Suburban and Rural Republican influence.

The current map has a hypothetical state with three districts, drawn fairly to include roughly even concentration of Democrat and Republican voters. Districts drawn in this manner could be won by either party, depending on turnout, candidates, resources, etc. The new district map, drawn by the winners of the 2010 election and according to the 2010 census, packs all the Democrats into one district, all the Republicans into another and leaves only one marginal district leaning toward the Republican Party. It is this power to draw lines and boundaries that is at stake in the elections in 2010, and the benefits or consequences of victory are long-term. We will have to work hard to ensure that our allies are drawing the lines.